Mu mpera z’icyumweru gishize, ibihugu bigize Umuryango wa Gulf byatangaje ko kuva ku wa Gatandatu mu gitondo byashoboye guhagarika misile na drone zirenga 1,500 zari zarashwe na Iran. Aya makuru yatangajwe mu gihe akarere k’Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati kari kamaze iminsi mu mwuka mubi w’intambara n’iterabwoba rishobora gukwira mu bindi bihugu.
Nk’uko byatangajwe n’inzego z’umutekano z’ibihugu birebwa n’iki kibazo, igitero cyamaze amasaha 48, kikaba cyarimo misile za balistike n’indege zitagira abapilote (drone) zoherejwe mu byiciro bitandukanye. Icyatangaje benshi ni uko nubwo ibisasu byarashwe ari byinshi cyane, nta kigo na kimwe cya gisirikare cya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika cyarashweho, nubwo Amerika ifite ibirindiro byinshi muri aka karere.
Imibare yatangajwe n’ibihugu birebwa
Ibihugu byatangaje ko byahagaritse ibisasu mu buryo bukurikira:
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United Arab Emirates: yahagaritse misile za balistike 165 na drone 540.
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Kuwait: yahagaritse hafi misile 100 na drone 300.
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Qatar: yahagaritse misile 65.
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Jordan: yahagaritse misile 13 za balistike na drone 50.
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Bahrain: yahagaritse misile 45 na drone 9.
Mu masaha 48 gusa, Iran yari imaze kurasa ibisasu birenga 1,500 ku bihugu bitanu. Ibi byatumye abasesenguzi benshi bavuga ko ari bwo bwirinzi bwo mu kirere buhenze kandi bugari cyane bwabayeho mu mateka y’akarere, ndetse bamwe bakabigereranya n’igihe habaga intambara ya Gulf yo mu 1991, nubwo imiterere y’intwaro n’ikoranabuhanga byahindutse cyane kuva icyo gihe.
Ese ni iki cyihishe inyuma y’iki gitero?
Iran imaze imyaka myinshi iri mu makimbirane n’ibihugu byo mu Karere ka Gulf, cyane cyane ku bijyanye n’imbaraga za gisirikare, politiki y’akarere, ndetse n’imibanire n’ibihugu by’iburengerazuba birimo Amerika. Gukoresha misile za balistike na drone byabaye kimwe mu bikoresho by’ingenzi Iran ikoresha mu kugaragaza imbaraga zayo.
Abasesenguzi mu by’umutekano bagaragaza ko iki gitero gishobora kuba cyari kigamije:
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Kwerekana ubushobozi bwa gisirikare bwa Iran.
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Gushyira igitutu ku bihugu bya Gulf bishinjwa gufatanya na Amerika.
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Kugerageza uburyo bwo kugenzura no kugerageza sisitemu z’ubwirinzi bwo mu kirere z’ibihugu birebwa.
Nubwo ibihugu bya Gulf byatangaje ko byashoboye guhagarika ibisasu hafi ya byose, ibi byerekana ko akarere kari mu bihe bikomeye bishobora gutuma intambara yaguka mu buryo budasanzwe.
Uburyo bwo kwirinda: Sisitemu z’ikoranabuhanga rihanitse
Ibihugu byo mu karere ka Gulf byashoye imari itari mike mu bwirinzi bwo mu kirere mu myaka ishize. Bimwe mu bikoresho byifashishijwe mu guhagarika ibi bisasu birimo:
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Sisitemu za Patriot zifashishwa mu guhagarika misile za balistike.
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Sisitemu za THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense).
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Radar zifite ubushobozi bwo gutahura ibisasu biturutse kure.
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Ikoranabuhanga ryo kurwanya drone rikoresha laser n’itumanaho rihungabanya ibikoresho bya drone.
Ibi bikoresho byafashije cyane cyane United Arab Emirates na Qatar, bifite ibikorwaremezo bikomeye byubatswe ku bufatanye na Amerika n’ibindi bihugu by’i Burayi.
Abasesenguzi bavuga ko amafaranga yakoreshejwe muri aya masaha 48 ashobora kuba ari mu rwego rwa miliyari z’amadolari, bitewe n’igiciro cya buri misile ikoreshwa mu guhagarika indi. Urugero, misile imwe ya Patriot ishobora kugura hagati ya miliyoni 3 na 5 z’amadolari.
Impamvu nta birindiro bya Amerika byarashweho
Kimwe mu byavuzwe cyane ni uko nta kigo cya gisirikare cya Amerika cyarashweho, nubwo Amerika ifite ibirindiro muri Qatar, Bahrain no muri Kuwait.
Hari ibitekerezo bitandukanye kuri ibi:
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Iran ishobora kuba yarifuzaga kwirinda gutera Amerika mu buryo butaziguye kugira ngo itangiza intambara yeruye.
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Gushaka kugaragaza ubutumwa bwa politiki ariko itarenze umurongo ushobora gutuma Amerika yinjira mu ntambara.
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Guhitamo ibindi bigo by’igihugu cyangwa ahantu hafite agaciro ka politiki kurusha aho Amerika ifite inyungu.
Ibi byerekana uburyo Iran iri kugerageza kugenzura urugero rw’intambara itangiza, igasigaza umuryango wo kuganira cyangwa gukemura ikibazo mu buryo bwa dipolomasi.
Ingaruka ku bukungu n’umutekano w’akarere
Akarere ka Gulf gafite akamaro kanini ku isoko mpuzamahanga rya peteroli. Ibi bihugu ni byo bitanga igice kinini cya peteroli ikoreshwa ku isi. Iyo umutekano uhungabanye muri aka karere, ibiciro bya peteroli birazamuka, bigatuma ubukungu bw’isi buhungabana.
Abasesenguzi mu by’ubukungu bavuga ko:
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Ibiciro bya peteroli bishobora kuzamuka mu gihe gito.
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Ibihugu bishora imari mu karere bishobora gutinya gukomeza ibikorwa byabyo.
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Isoko ry’imigabane rishobora guhura n’ihungabana.
Ku bijyanye n’umutekano, iki gitero cyerekanye ko nubwo ibihugu bya Gulf bifite ubwirinzi bukomeye, bikiri mu kaga ko kugabwaho ibitero byinshi mu gihe gito.
Ese iki ni intangiriro y’intambara nshya?
Nubwo iki gitero cyari kinini cyane, abahanga mu bya dipolomasi bavuga ko bishoboka ko impande zombi zishobora guhitamo kugabanya umwuka mubi binyuze mu biganiro byihariye. Amateka agaragaza ko mu bihe byinshi, ibihugu byo mu Karere ka Gulf na Iran byagiye bigera ku masezerano y’agateganyo mu gihe byabonaga ko intambara yeruye ishobora kubahombya kurushaho.
Ariko kandi, hari impungenge ko:
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Ibindi bihugu bishobora kwinjira muri aya makimbirane.
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Hashobora kubaho ibitero byihariye byibasira ibikorwaremezo by’ingufu.
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Imibanire ya Iran n’ibihugu byo mu Burengerazuba ishobora kurushaho kuzamo umwuka mubi.
Umwanzuro
Igitero cya misile na drone zirenga 1,500 cyarashwe mu masaha 48 ku bihugu bya Gulf ni kimwe mu byabaye binini cyane mu mateka y’akarere ku bijyanye n’intambara yo mu kirere. Kuba ibihugu nka United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan na Bahrain byarashoboye kubihagarika, byerekana urwego rw’ikoranabuhanga n’imbaraga zashyizwemo mu bwirinzi.
Nyamara, ibi binerekana ko akarere kari ku ntera ishobora gutuma habaho intambara yagutse mu gihe hatabaho ibiganiro n’ingamba za dipolomasi zihamye. Mu gihe isi ikomeje gukurikiranira hafi iby’iki kibazo, haracyibazwa niba iyi ari intangiriro y’ibihe bishya by’ukutumvikana mu Karere ka Gulf cyangwa niba ari ikimenyetso cy’uko impande zombi zigerageza kugaragaza imbaraga ariko zitarashaka intambara yeruye.
Icyo gihe kizagaragaza niba aka karere kazahinduka ahabera isura nshya y’intambara zigezweho, aho misile na drone bihinduka intwaro z’ingenzi mu guhangana kw’ibihugu
