IRAN ITANGAZA KO ISHOBOYE GUKOMEZA INTAMBARA IRIKURWANA N’AMERIKA NA ISRAEL AMEZI ATANDATU: IBI BISOBANURA IKI KU MUTEKANO W’ISI?

Mu gihe intambara ikomeje gukaza umurego mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, umutwe w’ingabo zidasanzwe za Iran uzwi nka Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) watangaje ko Iran ifite ubushobozi bwo gukomeza intambara ikomeye nibura amezi atandatu irwana n’ibihugu bibiri bikomeye ari byo United States na Israel byaba byishyize hamwe.

Iri tangazo ryatangajwe mu gihe amakuru y’intambara akomeje kugaragaza ko ibitero hagati y’impande zitandukanye bikomeje kwiyongera, bigatera impungenge ku mutekano w’isi n’ubukungu bw’isi muri rusange.

Uretse kuba iri tangazo ryaravuzwe n’abayobozi bakomeye mu gisirikare cya Iran, ryanatumye isi yose yongera kwibaza ku bushobozi bwa Iran mu bya gisirikare n’uko iyi ntambara ishobora kumara igihe kirekire kurusha uko benshi babyumvaga mbere.

IRGC yavuze iki ku bushobozi bwa Iran mu ntambara?

Umuvugizi wa IRGC, Ali Mohammad Naini, yatangaje ko ingabo za Iran ziteguye gukomeza intambara ikomeye igihe kirekire n’iyo yaba irimo ingufu nyinshi.

Yagize ati:

Ingabo za Repubulika ya Iran zifite ubushobozi bwo gukomeza intambara ikomeye nibura amezi atandatu ku muvuduko w’imirwano iriho ubu.

Nk’uko IRGC ibivuga, Iran yamaze kugaba ibitero ku ntego zirenga 200 zifitanye isano n’ibirindiro bya Amerika na Israel mu karere kose k’Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati.

Ibi bitero birimo gukoresha misile zitandukanye ndetse na drones zifite ubushobozi bwo kugera kure cyane.

Abayobozi b’igisirikare cya Iran banatangaje ko kugeza ubu batari bakoresha intwaro zose bafite, ahubwo bakoresheje zimwe mu zishaje, mu gihe izindi zigezweho zishobora gukoreshwa mu gihe intambara yakomeza gukara.

Impamvu Iran ivuga ko ishobora kurwana amezi atandatu

Hari impamvu nyinshi zituma Iran ivuga ko ishobora gukomeza iyi ntambara igihe kirekire.

1. Ubwinshi bw’intwaro za misile

Iran ni kimwe mu bihugu bifite ububiko bunini bwa misile mu karere ka Middle East.

Mu myaka myinshi ishize, Iran yashyize imbaraga mu gukora no guteza imbere misile zishobora kugera kure cyane.

Izi misile zirimo:

• Misile za ballistic

• Misile zishobora kugenda ku butaka zifite intera ndende

• Drones z’intambara

Ibi bituma Iran ishobora kugaba ibitero ku ntego ziri kure cyane, harimo n’ibirindiro bya Amerika biri mu bihugu bitandukanye byo mu karere.

2. Inkunga y’imitwe iyishyigikiye mu karere

Iran ifite imitwe myinshi iyishyigikiye mu karere ka Middle East.

Iyo mitwe irimo:

• Hezbollah muri Lebanon

• Hamas muri Gaza

• imitwe yitwaje intwaro iri muri Iraq na Syria

Iyo mitwe ishobora gufasha Iran mu kurwanya Israel cyangwa Amerika, bigatuma intambara ikwira mu bihugu byinshi icyarimwe.

3. Ubunararibonye Iran ifite mu ntambara

Iran si igihugu gishya mu ntambara.

Mu mateka yayo, Iran yigeze kurwana intambara ndende cyane n’igihugu cya Iraq hagati ya 1980 na 1988.

Iyo ntambara yamaze imyaka umunani yose, igapfiramo abantu barenga miliyoni imwe.

Ibi byatumye Iran yubaka igisirikare gifite ubunararibonye mu kurwana intambara zishobora kumara igihe kirekire.

Israel na Amerika byo biteguye iki?

Ku ruhande rwa Israel na Amerika, na byo byakomeje kugaragaza ko bitazihanganira ibitero bya Iran.

Ingabo za Israel zimaze iminsi zigaba ibitero ku bikorwa bya gisirikare bya Iran, harimo:

• ibigo by’ububiko bwa lisansi

• ibikorwa remezo bya gisirikare

• ibirindiro by’ingabo

Hari raporo zivuga ko Israel yateye ahantu hatandukanye muri Tehran harimo n’ububiko bwa lisansi bwakoreshwaga mu bikorwa bya gisirikare.

Ku ruhande rwa Amerika, ubuyobozi bw’iki gihugu bwatangaje ko bushobora gukomeza ibikorwa bya gisirikare mu gihe Iran yakomeza ibitero ku nyungu zayo cyangwa ku bafatanyabikorwa bayo.

Iyi ntambara ishobora kugira ingaruka zikomeye ku isi

Intambara iri hagati ya Iran, Israel na Amerika ishobora kugira ingaruka zikomeye ku isi yose.

1. Izamuka ry’ibiciro bya peteroli

Akarere ka Middle East ni ko gatanga igice kinini cya peteroli ikoreshwa ku isi.

Iyo intambara ibaye muri ako karere, ibiciro bya peteroli bishobora kuzamuka cyane.

Bimwe mu bihugu byamaze gutangaza ko ibikorwa byabyo by’ubucukuzi bwa peteroli bishobora guhagarara cyangwa kugabanuka kubera umutekano muke.

2. Umutekano w’isi ushobora guhungabana

Iyo ibihugu bikomeye nk’Amerika n’ibindi bifite ingabo zikomeye byinjiriye mu ntambara nini, bishobora guteza ikibazo gikomeye ku mutekano w’isi.

Hari impungenge ko iyi ntambara ishobora gukwirakwira mu bindi bihugu byo mu karere birimo:

• Saudi Arabia

• United Arab Emirates

• Kuwait

Bimwe muri ibi bihugu byamaze gutangaza ko byakiriye ibitero bya drones cyangwa misile mu minsi ishize.

3. Ibibazo by’ubuhunzi n’ubutabazi

Intambara nini ishobora gutuma abaturage benshi bahunga ingo zabo.

Raporo zitandukanye zigaragaza ko abantu ibihumbi n’ibihumbi bamaze guhunga mu bice bitandukanye by’Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati kubera ibitero bya misile n’indege z’intambara.

Ese Iran ishobora koko guhangana na Amerika na Israel?

Iki ni ikibazo benshi bibaza.

Amerika ifite igisirikare gifatwa nk’igikomeye ku isi, gifite:

• indege z’intambara zigezweho

• amato manini y’intambara

• intwaro z’ikirimbuzi

Ku rundi ruhande, Israel nayo ifite igisirikare gikomeye cyane ndetse ikaba ifite ubufatanye bukomeye na Amerika.

Ariko Iran nayo ifite ibintu bishobora kuyifasha mu ntambara ndende, birimo:

• ubwinshi bwa misile

• imitwe iyishyigikiye mu karere

• ubwinshi bw’abasirikare

Ibi byose bituma impuguke mu bya politiki mpuzamahanga zivuga ko intambara hagati y’ibi bihugu ishobora kuba ndende kandi igira ingaruka zikomeye ku isi.

Ese amahoro ashobora kuboneka?

Nubwo amagambo y’intambara akomeje kuvugwa n’impande zombi, hari ibihugu byinshi n’imiryango mpuzamahanga ikomeje gusaba ko haba ibiganiro by’amahoro.

Ibihugu bikomeye birimo China n’ibindi byatangaje ko isi idakwiye gusubira mu bihe by’intambara zikomeye hagati y’ibihugu bikomeye.

Abasesenguzi benshi bemeza ko inzira yonyine ishobora guhagarika iyi ntambara ari ibiganiro bya dipolomasi hagati y’ibihugu birebwa n’iki kibazo.

Umusozo

Itangazo rya Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) rivuga ko Iran ishobora gukomeza intambara amezi atandatu rirerekana ko amakimbirane hagati ya Iran, Israel na Amerika ashobora gukomeza igihe kirekire.

Mu gihe ibitero bikomeje kwiyongera mu Burasirazuba bwo Hagati, isi yose irimo gukurikiranira hafi uko ibintu bizagenda mu minsi iri imbere.

Abasesenguzi benshi bavuga ko iyi ntambara ishobora kugira ingaruka zikomeye ku bukungu bw’isi, umutekano w’isi ndetse n’ubuzima bw’abaturage benshi.

Icyizere gihari ni uko ibiganiro by’amahoro bishobora kubaho mbere y’uko iyi ntambara irushaho gukaza umurego.