Iran Itangaje ko Strait of Hormuz Itazongera Gufungurwa: Ingaruka Zishobora Kugera ku Bukungu bw’Isi

Iran Itangaje ko Strait of Hormuz Itazongera Gufungurwa: Ingaruka Zishobora Kugera ku Bukungu bw’Isi
Mu gihe umwuka w’intambara ukomeje kwiyongera mu karere k’Uburasirazuba bwo Hagati, amagambo aherutse gutangazwa n’umuyobozi w’umusirikare ukomeye wa Iran yakomeje guteza impungenge ku rwego mpuzamahanga. Mohsen Rezaei, wahoze ayobora ingabo za Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), yatangaje ko inzira ya Strait of Hormuz itazongera gufungurwa kugeza igihe United States izishyurira Iran indishyi z’ibyangijwe n’intambara ndetse ikanavana ingabo zayo mu karere ka Persian Gulf.
Aya magambo yatangajwe n’ibitangazamakuru bya Iran birimo Press TV, mu gihe amakimbirane hagati ya Iran, Amerika ndetse na Israel akomeje gufata indi ntera ishobora kugira ingaruka ku mutekano n’ubukungu bw’isi yose.
Strait of Hormuz: Inzira y’ingenzi ku isi
Strait of Hormuz ni imwe mu nzira zo mu nyanja zifite akamaro kanini ku bukungu bw’isi. Ihuza Persian Gulf n’inyanja ya Gulf of Oman, kandi inyuramo amato menshi atwara peteroli ava mu bihugu bikize ku ngufu zo mu nyanja.
Abasesenguzi b’ubukungu bavuga ko hafi 20% bya peteroli ikoreshwa ku isi yose inyura muri iyi nzira. Ibi bituma iba inzira ifite akamaro gakomeye ku bucuruzi mpuzamahanga ndetse n’imikorere y’inganda nyinshi ku isi.
Ibihugu byinshi bitanga peteroli byifashisha iyi nzira mu kohereza ibikomoka kuri peteroli ku masoko mpuzamahanga. Bimwe muri byo harimo:
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Kuwait
Iraq
Qatar
Iyo nzira ihungabanye cyangwa igafungwa, bishobora gutuma ubucuruzi bwa peteroli ku isi buhungabana cyane, bigateza izamuka rikomeye ry’ibiciro bya peteroli n’ibikomoka kuri yo.
Impamvu Iran ishobora gufunga iyi nzira
Iran imaze imyaka myinshi ivuga ko ishobora gufunga Strait of Hormuz mu gihe yaba ihuye n’igitutu gikomeye cy’ibihugu byo mu Burengerazuba bw’isi.
Abayobozi ba Iran bavuga ko iyo nzira iri mu gace kegereye igihugu cyabo, bityo bafite uburenganzira bwo kuyigenzura no kuyifunga igihe babona umutekano wabo ubangamiwe.
Mu magambo ya Mohsen Rezaei, Iran ivuga ko inzira ishobora kongera gufungurwa gusa ari uko hari ibisabwa byujujwe birimo:
Amerika kwishyura indishyi z’ibyangiritse byatewe n’intambara.
Gukuraho ingabo zayo mu karere ka Persian Gulf.
Ibi ni ibisabwa bikomeye cyane ku ruhande rwa Amerika, ku buryo bishobora gutuma amakimbirane akomeza igihe kirekire.
Amateka y’umubano mubi hagati ya Iran na Amerika
Umubano hagati ya United States na Iran umaze imyaka myinshi utifashe neza. Ibi byatangiye cyane nyuma ya Iranian Revolution, aho ubutegetsi bwa Iran bwahindutse maze umubano n’ibihugu byo mu Burengerazuba bw’isi ugahungabana.
Kuva icyo gihe, ibihugu byombi byagiye bishyamirana ku bibazo bitandukanye birimo:
gahunda ya Iran yo guteza imbere ingufu za nuclear
inkunga Iran itanga ku mitwe yitwaje intwaro mu karere
umutekano wa Israel
Amerika n’ibihugu biyishyigikiye bishinja Iran guteza umutekano muke mu karere, mu gihe Iran na yo ishinja Amerika kwivanga mu bibazo by’akarere no kugerageza kuyicisha intege.
Ingaruka ku bukungu bw’isi
Niba koko Strait of Hormuz yafungwa igihe kirekire, ingaruka zayo ku bukungu bw’isi zaba zikomeye cyane.
Abasesenguzi bavuga ko bishobora gutuma:
ibiciro bya peteroli bizamuka cyane ku masoko mpuzamahanga
ibiciro by’ubwikorezi ku isi byiyongera
ibihugu byinshi bihura n’izamuka ry’ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa
Kubera ko ubwikorezi bwinshi bushingira ku bikomoka kuri peteroli, izamuka ryayo rishobora gutuma ibiciro by’ibintu byinshi bizamuka ku isi hose.
Ingaruka ku bihugu bikiri mu nzira y’amajyambere
Ibihugu byinshi bikiri mu nzira y’amajyambere bishobora guhura n’ibibazo bikomeye kurushaho. Ibi ni ukubera ko ibyinshi muri byo bitumiza peteroli hanze.
Iyo ibiciro bya peteroli byiyongereye cyane bishobora gutuma:
ibiciro by’ibiribwa bizamuka
ubwikorezi buhenze
ubukungu bw’ibihugu bugabanuka
Ibi bishobora no kugira ingaruka ku mibereho y’abaturage basanzwe, cyane cyane abari mu byiciro bikennye.
Ese amahanga ashobora gutabara?
Mu gihe amakimbirane akomeje kwiyongera, amahanga ashobora gushaka uburyo bwo kugabanya ubushyamirane hagati y’impande zirebwa n’iki kibazo.
Imiryango mpuzamahanga ishobora kugira uruhare mu gushaka ibisubizo harimo:
United Nations
European Union
Iyi miryango ishobora gusaba impande zombi kuganira no gushaka ibisubizo binyuze mu nzira z’amahoro.
Umusozo
Amagambo yatangajwe na Mohsen Rezaei agaragaza ko amakimbirane hagati ya Iran, Amerika na Israel akomeje gufata indi ntera ishobora kugira ingaruka zikomeye ku isi yose. Inzira ya Strait of Hormuz ifite akamaro kanini ku bukungu bw’isi, bityo gufungwa kwayo bishobora guteza ikibazo gikomeye mu bucuruzi bwa peteroli n’ingufu.
Isi yose ikomeje gukurikiranira hafi uko ibintu bizagenda, kuko icyemezo cyose gifatwa kuri iyi nzira gishobora guhindura imigendekere y’ubukungu mpuzamahanga.
Mu gihe amahanga akomeje gushaka ibisubizo, benshi bizera ko ibiganiro bya dipolomasi bishobora gufasha kugabanya ubushyamirane no kurinda isi ingaruka zikomeye z’aya makimbirane.